Week 3 DFS Locks

Quarterback:

Stud: Kyler Murray, $8,400

  • In reality, you can’t go wrong with any of the top 3 (Wilson, Prescott, Murray). That being said, I like Murray at a slightly cheaper price point against the Lions this week. With a depleted secondary, the Lions were torched by Mitchell Trubisky (24.3 points) in week 1. In week 2 (Rodgers scored 18.2 points), Aaron Jones took over the game. That being said, Packers receivers were running wide open all day, even after Davante Adams was injured. When you add in Kyler Murray’s insane rushing stats (3 TDs and 150 yards) this season, he is set up to explode against a weak Detroit secondary. I think Stafford should keep this game competitive with the return of Kenny Golladay, and keep the Cardinals from running out the clock. I’m rocking with a heavy Cardinals stack in many lineups this week (Hopkins $8,500 and Drake $6,500).

Budget Baller: Matthew Stafford ($7,400)

  • Well on the other side of the second highest over-under of the week is QB Matthew Stafford. Admittedly this season hasn’t been Stafford’s greatest, with 16.2 points in both Week 1 and 2. That being said, his performance has shown that he is struggling without Kenny Golladay. With Golladay, Stafford has had one of the highest deep throw percentages in the NFL (and one of the highest completion rates), but has been around the league average this year. With the return of Golladay, Stafford should go back to his deep-ball throwing self, and should have a lot more options to throw to with Marvin Jones Jr facing easier coverage as well. 

Bust: Deshaun Watson, $8,000

  • I’m legitimately worried for Watson this game, as I think hes going to be used as a punching bag for the Steeler’s defensive line. With TJ Watt leading the charge, the Steelers have amounted an insane 43.7% pressure rate. On the flip side, the Texans offensive line have allowed the most pressures in the league and have all around looked terrible. Watson has struggled under pressure as well, with his QBR dropping to a sad 25.8. Currently priced at QB 5 on FanDuel, Watson is set up to struggle this Sunday, in what should be a relatively one-sided affair. I’d choose someone else to lead your lineups this week.

Running Back:

Stud: Miles Sanders ($7,400)

  • I’ve been far from a Miles Sanders lover this offseason, but I think this might be the only week of the season you’ll be able to put him in your lineup this cheap. In his first game against the Rams, Sanders saw 78% of the snaps. He received 20 carries and 7(!!) targets in a blowout loss to the Rams. We saw everything you want from a workhorse back in fantasy football, and he looked fully healthy. The Bengal’s defense just got torn to pieces by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt last week for a combined 210 rush yards and 3 rush TDs. I expect Sanders to have a massive week, and offers RB1 potential at the RB10 price.

Budget Baller: Kenyan Drake ($6,500)

  • I’ll be honest, I wasn’t a big fan of Kenyan Drake this offseason either. So far, my predictions have been right, as the Cardinals have turned to Hopkins for a lot of the short targets Drake dominated on last year. That being said, the Lions just gave up over 40 fantasy points to Aaron Jones last week and are projected to lose by 5.5 points in a game with a 55.5 point over-under. I think Drake will see a lot of usage in this game as the Cardinals try to take advantage of a Lion’s front seven that has struggled against runningbacks. Sanders and Drake are a great RB1 and 2 combination that should be pretty popular this week. I would lock both in with no hesitation on Sunday.

Bust: Chris Carson, $7,700

  • Chris Carson has quietly reached RB6 in PPR leagues through two games, and is priced as RB7 on FanDuel this week. That being said, Carson has scored 3 receiving touchdowns thus far, which seems like an outlier for him. Carlos Hyde has taken a surprising amount of carries and snaps from Carson, especially in redzone situations. I think that Carson is more of a touchdown dependent RB2 with his usage, as he has only received 23 carries in two games. The Cowboys defensive line is the strength of this unit, holding Todd Gurley to 2.9 YPC after allowing 4.4 YPC to Malcolm Brown week 1. I like taking pieces of Seattle’s offense this week in the game with the highest over-under, but I would rather take more consistent options of the passing game like Metcalf or Lockett. 

Wide Receiver: 

Stud: Mike Evans, $7,700

  • Chris Godwin comes back this week against Denver, but I still firmly expect Evans to have a top-5 week. The Broncos have allowed an alarming amount of completions and yards to the perimeter receivers, and have been the 5th friendliest defense to outside receivers. Godwin primarily plays in the slot, where Denver has covered a little bit better than out wide. I expect Brady to look Evans’ way early and often, similar to last weeks offensive explosion. As the 5th-most expensive reciever this week, Evans costs more than a pretty penny, but I think he’ll pay off in a big way if he can find his way into the endzone a couple times. 

Bust: DJ Moore, $6,700

  • This pretty much goes for any receiver playing the Chargers this season. With Casey Hayward and Chris Harris, the Chargers have one of the best secondaries in the NFL to go with a ferocious defensive line. Tyreek Hill was able to salvage his week with an absolutely perfect 50-yard touchdown from Patrick Mahomes that I don’t think Bridgewater/Moore are capable of making. Robby Anderson should struggle quite a bit as well, so I wouldn’t start him either as a budget option. Curtis Samuel is a really interesting option for the future, as he may see a lot of snaps as the running back, but I wouldn’t start him either.

Budget Baller: CeeDee Lamb, $5,600

  • This one seems pretty short and simple. The Cowboys-Seahawks game has a 56 point over-under (The highest of the week). Lamb plays 91% of his snaps in the slot. The Seahawks have given up the most yards, catches, and touchdowns to the slot receiver this year. Buy CeeDee Lamb. That is all.

Tight End:

Stud: Zach Ertz, $6,200

  • The expensive tight ends this week really don’t look like great options. That being said, I like Ertz and Goedert as the best options this week. With the loss of WR Jalen Reagor, the Eagles are down to 4 healthy wide receivers. Ertz and Goedert should both be the 1 and 2 options for Carson Wentz, who should have some success against a porous Bengal’s defense. Ertz hasn’t put up amazing fantasy numbers to this point, but has seen 7 targets in both games and should be due for a touchdown. If you want to save a little money for a higher-priced player elsewhere, I would be fine starting Goedert as well.

Budget Baller: Logan Thomas $4,900

  • I promise, if Logan Thomas doesn’t do good this week I’ll never talk about him ever again. That being said, he makes the budget baller section one last time against the easiest tight end matchup this season in the Cleveland Browns. Thomas has seen 17 targets in two weeks, but has only been able to pull in ~40% of those. That being said, with the return of CB Greedy Williams, the Browns have their secondary at full strength. With an above-average defensive line, the Browns should be pressuring Dwayne Haskins quite a bit. Thomas should be peppered with short targets once again in what should be a rough day for the Washington wide receivers. Thomas becomes a volume play in hopes of him finding his way into the endzone. If he does, he will pay off massively for such a cheap option.

Bust: Tyler Higbee, $6,100

  • Tyler Higbee absolutely destroyed the Eagles last week, scoring 3 touchdowns en route to a dominant Rams win. Mike Gesecki just totally demolished the Bills defense last week, garnering 8 catches for 130 yards. So why would I not take Higbee at his TE4 price point? The Bills get back their two starting linebackers in Edmunds and Milano, who missed the first couple weeks of the season. All of a sudden, the Bills defense goes from one of the easiest matchups for tight ends, to one of the more difficult. I wouldn’t start Higbee at that high of a price. I would rather go with someone like Goedert or Thomas again this week.

Defense:

Cleveland Browns, $3,900

  • I don’t think the Browns are ever a great option for defense, but they match perfectly against Washington. The presence of DE Myles Garrett should have Haskins on the run all game, especially with Washington’s offensive line that has allowed 7 sacks in two games. The Browns are probably the best cheap play you could get, and should do enough to help you win your lineups.

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