Week 1 provided a lot of useful information that we can use to help us find the best possible DFS lineups. We have a better understanding of confusing backfields and a general idea of what packages offenses are starting to use. Let’s get to work!
Stud: Dak Prescott, $8,300
- Against a decently hard matchup during Sunday Night Football, Prescott only scored 17 fantasy points. That being said, he faces the Falcon’s defense that gave up 4 passing touchdowns to Russel Wilson the week before. With 2 rookie cornerbacks, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb should see a lot of open space. This game has the highest projected point total of any week 1 game, and should result in a lot of points for the Cowboys offense. I think the Prescott-Zeke-Gallup/Cooper stack will be the stack with the highest point total (and highest ownership) this week.
Budget Baller: Mitchell Trubisky, $7,200
- With the Allen Robinson drama finally settled, the Bear’s offense will enter week 2 fully healthy. Trubisky torched the Lion’s defense last week and this week he faces a Giants defense that got picked apart by Ben Roethlisberger in his first game in a year. Anthony Miller seems to be well on his way to a breakout season and David Montgomery looks like the same inefficient runner as last season. Trubisky has also shown a propensity to use his legs when he needs to, which could help his value against a slower defense. I think Trubisky has a legitimate shot to finish as a top-10 QB this week and is priced as QB 14. Matthew Stafford is the same price as Trubisky and definitely warrants a start against a Packers defense that gave up 34 points to the Vikings if Kenny Golladay plays Sunday.
Avoid: Deshaun Watson, $7,900
- Last week, Watson finished as QB 11 against the Kansas City Chiefs. That being said, his value was heavily inflated by a last minute rushing TD that boosted his point total. I think that the Texan’s offensive line will struggle with the Raven’s pass rush and Watson will be constantly under pressure all game again. Currently priced as QB 7, Watson faces one of the harder matchups in the NFL with an essentially nonexistent offensive line. I think that Watson will still make the game competitive, but I would rather spend my money on another QB instead of betting on Watson getting a few garbage time touchdowns.
Stud: Ezekiel Elliot, $8,600
- Elliot juked out half of the Ram’s defense on his way to a 26.2 point night last Sunday. In a game where the Cowboys are projected to win by 5 points in the highest point scoring game of the week, I expected Elliot to score a couple touchdowns. The Falcons gave up to receiving touchdowns to Chris Carson and a rushing touchdown to Carlos Hyde last week against the Seahawks. With the Falcons focused on the receiving threats in the Cowboy’s passing offense, Zeke should find a lot of room to run and will be open on short routes that put him in open space. Like I previously mentioned, I want all the pieces of the Cowboy’s offense this week, and expect a huge week from each player.
Budget Baller: Jonathan Taylor, $5,800 Nyheim Hines, $5,500
- While the Colt’s backfield is still a bit of a mess, the injury to Marlon Mack clears things up a bit. HC Frank Reich said Taylor is currently the starter, but Hines will have an important role. Both running backs proved they could maintain value last week, with Taylor scoring 11.3 points and Hines scoring 23.3 points. The Viking’s defensive line struggled against the Packers last week, recording 0 sacks for the first time since Mike Zimmer took the reigns. The Viking’s defense gave up a whopping 43 points to Aaron Rodgers, although Aaron Jones only scored 15.6 FanDuel points. Meanwhile, Indianapolis threw 17!! passes to their RBs in week 1. Philip Rivers has been the biggest checkdown quarterback in football the past couple seasons, and the trend seems to be continuing in Indianapolis. I think that both Hines and Taylor have value with their pass-catching, although Hines appears to have the goalline role secured. Against a Vikings defense that showed it is extremely susceptible to passes, I expect Hines and Taylor to both have good weeks at a cheap price.
Avoid: Aaron Jones, $7,700
- Aaron Jones was one of the players I was worried about coming into fantasy drafts because I thought the Packers were going to shift over to a committee. After 1 week, it certainly looks like I was right. Jones only played 54% of the snaps in a dominant victory against the Vikings. Meanwhile, Jamaal Williams played on 40% of the snaps and A.J. Dillon on 5%. Williams looked more than capable out there and might be used to keep Jones fresh throughout the game. I think that Jones is still capable of huge games if the Packer’s offense can play like they did week 1, but the snap usage is concerning. He has an easier matchup against the Detroit Lions (although they did shut down David Montgomery last week), but I would rather find someone else to start.
Stud: Julio Jones, $8,200
- I had Jones in this same position last week and he paid off tremendously (and led me to multiple winning lineups). WIth Godwin, Evans, Golladay, and Thomas all injured, you might have to spend your money on one of the top three highest priced receivers. Jones plays in the highest-point total game of the week and is coming off a massive 157-yard performance against the Seattle Seahawks. The Cowboys gave up 100+ yards to Robert Woods last week and will be missing a true #1 CB with the absence of Byron Jones. I think Jones is worth the hefty price tag this week and should be set to explode once again.
Budget Baller: Parris Campbell, $5,300
- Campbell put up 11 FanDuel points last week against the Jaguars. Admittedly that’s not amazing, but he saw an impressive 9 targets, which tied Hilton for the team lead. I think the Vikings will make this a competitive game and keep Rivers passing the football. Campbell seems to be the Keenan Allen of Rivers’ Colt’s offense. Now entering his 2nd season, the 4.31 40-yard dash runner has the speed for massive breakaway plays. Campbell should see enough volume to keep him fantasy relevant and is one big play from being a massive value at the receiver position. If the Viking’s defense performs like it does last week, Campbell should accrue massive yards this week.
Avoid: Tyreek Hill, $8,000
- I don’t blame you if you decide to start Tyreek Hill. It only takes one or two passes for him to have a great week. That being said, the Chargers did a great job of shutting him down last season. In week 11, Hill scored 0 points against them. In week 17, Hill scored 8.1 points against them. With the addition of CB Chris Harris Jr., the Charger’s secondary improved even more so than it already was. I think that the Chief’s will easily win this game, but I’m worried about Mahomes and his receiving options. Hill is the 4th-most expensive receiver this week and faces one of the hardest matchups in the NFL. I would pivot off of Hill this week and look for someone else to start.
Stud: Hunter Henry, $6,100
- The Chief’s have a relatively solid defense, but were vulnerable to tight ends last season. They gave up 17 points to the Texan’s tight end group, who aren’t known for their pass-catching skills. Henry pulled in 6/69/0 and 5/42/1 statlines last season against the Chiefs. Henry looked like Taylor’s favorite target last week, seeing 9 targets. I like Henry’s odds at seeing a lot of volume if the Chargers are forced into a pass-heavy script quickly in the game. Kelce and Andrews are likely higher ceiling plays, and if you can afford them I would suggest going with Andrews, but Henry is the next best tight end.
Budget Baller: Logan Thomas, $4,700
- Logan Thomas was a popular late-round pick as a hyper-athletic tight end. He appeared to be the 2nd option for QB Dwayne Haskins on Sunday, pulling in 4 passes and a touchdown on a team-high 8 targets. The Cardinal’s defense was notoriously terrible against tight ends last season. Although George Kittle largely disappointed last week, he scored 7.1 FanDuel points before his knee sprain in the first half. I think the Cardinal’s defense should greatly improve with the addition of Isiah Simmons, but I still like Logan Thomas as Simmons adjusts to the NFL. For $4,700, Thomas gives you an insanely cheap option that finds himself in a great place to receive a lot of volume.
Defense: Pittsburgh Steelers $4,600
- I tend to stray away from the higher priced defenses, but I think the Steeler’s defense is going to eat Drew Lock and the Bronco’s offense alive this week. The front seven held Saquon Barkley to 6 yards on 15 carries, which would have sounded virtually impossible the week before. Drew Lock had the highest percentage of negative throws last week (per PFF), and threw multiple interceptable passes against the Titan’s defense. If Sutton misses next week, the Broncos will struggle to get any offense at all. I think the Steeler’s defense is worth the extra money this week, and am likely going to invest in them in multiple lineups this week.
Good luck this week! Let us know on Twitter @GeekSportsDFS if any of these tips helped you win!